* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 26 29 34 39 45 47 51 53 57 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 24 26 29 34 40 45 48 51 53 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 26 27 29 31 34 36 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 15 15 12 7 13 5 3 7 4 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 32 28 21 14 15 20 57 360 19 272 296 286 226 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 162 165 164 159 157 156 150 143 143 144 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 155 154 156 155 150 143 138 128 119 119 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 72 74 73 67 56 53 49 50 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 7 15 11 -11 -22 -23 -18 -46 -28 -57 -37 200 MB DIV 26 20 16 23 48 30 42 25 21 11 5 1 7 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 283 184 89 -6 44 289 544 742 874 929 913 891 877 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.4 17.2 18.1 18.9 21.1 23.4 25.2 26.6 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.8 66.1 66.3 66.4 66.3 66.0 65.8 65.8 66.1 66.5 67.1 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 12 10 8 6 2 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 74 84 77 74 81 80 34 29 29 26 27 27 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -14. -17. -18. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 4. 9. 15. 17. 21. 23. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 65.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.51 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.89 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.7% 10.6% 7.2% 6.9% 9.6% 12.3% 21.9% Logistic: 1.1% 4.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 1.9% 5.1% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.7% 6.6% 4.3% 2.7% 2.4% 3.9% 5.9% 8.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 24 26 29 34 40 45 48 51 53 57 18HR AGO 30 29 28 25 27 30 35 41 46 49 52 54 58 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 25 28 33 39 44 47 50 52 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 30 36 41 44 47 49 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT