* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 60 66 75 80 83 83 82 79 79 77 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 60 66 75 80 83 83 82 79 79 77 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 56 61 70 75 80 86 86 82 79 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 4 7 7 15 8 7 9 15 15 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 5 8 1 3 4 9 4 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 321 299 320 310 320 335 355 311 239 226 220 217 216 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 147 143 145 145 139 139 134 133 140 139 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 147 143 145 145 139 138 130 128 134 131 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 74 74 72 71 70 65 63 56 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 24 24 27 27 27 27 30 29 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 53 57 66 83 76 73 76 92 90 85 82 200 MB DIV 77 91 101 107 126 60 75 60 58 36 59 17 15 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 0 -5 -6 0 2 2 1 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 878 1010 1142 1271 1402 1687 1958 1812 1696 1670 1676 1749 1845 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.1 15.1 16.4 17.8 19.5 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 24.8 26.2 27.6 28.9 30.2 33.0 35.6 38.2 40.6 42.6 44.4 46.2 47.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 11 11 16 18 13 21 22 12 15 18 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 10. 9. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 26. 35. 40. 43. 43. 42. 39. 39. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.2 24.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 45.1% 30.5% 13.1% 10.6% 18.8% 29.0% 40.8% Logistic: 15.5% 41.3% 26.6% 13.1% 4.7% 10.4% 12.3% 6.9% Bayesian: 9.4% 28.0% 14.1% 1.8% 3.5% 11.7% 24.0% 21.0% Consensus: 11.0% 38.1% 23.7% 9.3% 6.3% 13.6% 21.8% 22.9% DTOPS: 6.0% 34.0% 19.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 12.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 53 60 66 75 80 83 83 82 79 79 77 18HR AGO 40 39 46 53 59 68 73 76 76 75 72 72 70 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 49 58 63 66 66 65 62 62 60 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 45 50 53 53 52 49 49 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT