* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 57 57 54 47 38 29 23 20 20 20 20 V (KT) LAND 50 55 57 57 54 47 38 29 23 20 20 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 57 57 54 45 36 30 26 24 23 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 12 18 23 30 24 23 28 19 15 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 4 4 -2 1 -2 -1 -6 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 178 192 206 207 220 218 233 263 284 311 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 138 138 135 129 127 127 130 134 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 61 59 52 47 42 40 40 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 60 56 40 33 2 8 14 9 4 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 68 53 58 57 45 16 4 6 6 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 12 12 11 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2015 1952 1890 1773 1659 1532 1425 1236 1175 1104 997 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.1 18.9 19.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.2 136.7 137.2 138.2 139.1 140.2 141.2 143.0 143.6 144.3 145.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 9 12 10 6 7 6 4 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 12 17 19 6 3 2 2 8 18 21 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 4. -3. -12. -21. -27. -30. -30. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 136.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.10 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.78 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 28.4% 23.5% 17.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.8% 7.0% 4.4% 2.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 12.0% 9.4% 6.7% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##