* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 28 31 35 42 47 52 57 61 65 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 25 28 31 36 42 48 52 58 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 24 27 27 28 31 34 38 42 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 17 15 7 9 10 8 2 5 4 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 -2 -1 1 2 2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 33 24 17 18 22 42 88 27 103 298 265 319 303 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 162 166 161 157 156 159 154 148 147 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 154 160 153 145 141 140 131 123 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 74 74 71 67 57 54 48 49 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 1 4 0 -21 -24 -20 -10 -23 -15 -36 -16 200 MB DIV 20 20 27 56 42 20 21 9 11 3 8 -4 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 1 -1 -4 0 -1 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 234 156 75 -11 111 367 557 763 885 933 908 872 837 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.4 19.5 21.8 23.5 25.3 26.4 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.1 66.4 66.4 66.4 66.0 65.6 65.0 64.9 65.2 65.7 66.5 67.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 10 9 8 4 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 80 81 76 77 82 69 32 33 33 29 28 26 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 5. 12. 17. 22. 27. 31. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 65.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 16.7% 11.3% 7.6% 7.5% 9.9% 12.9% 22.9% Logistic: 1.1% 4.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 3.7% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.8% 7.0% 4.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.8% 5.5% 8.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 25 28 31 36 42 48 52 58 61 65 18HR AGO 30 29 28 25 28 31 36 42 48 52 58 61 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 26 29 34 40 46 50 56 59 63 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 31 37 43 47 53 56 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT