* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 62 68 75 81 84 85 86 87 84 80 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 62 68 75 81 84 85 86 87 84 80 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 65 72 77 82 85 86 84 80 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 7 11 15 4 8 13 8 6 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 7 10 4 1 3 4 7 2 -2 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 316 346 276 298 312 358 342 291 257 262 214 239 234 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 147 147 138 136 134 132 135 138 135 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 144 147 147 138 135 130 127 128 129 125 128 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 71 71 70 72 67 66 61 58 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 23 24 27 27 28 28 29 31 31 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 54 58 62 70 81 82 76 77 89 83 88 80 93 200 MB DIV 105 127 122 136 108 30 70 42 24 43 53 9 8 700-850 TADV -5 -2 2 0 -1 -6 0 3 0 4 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1015 1140 1271 1404 1540 1840 1903 1748 1695 1723 1793 1887 1941 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.8 16.0 17.5 19.1 20.7 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 26.2 27.6 28.9 30.3 31.6 34.5 37.0 39.6 41.7 43.2 44.5 45.8 47.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 16 17 15 14 23 15 13 19 20 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 10. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 30. 36. 39. 40. 41. 42. 39. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.4 26.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.69 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 36.1% 20.5% 11.8% 9.2% 13.0% 28.8% 32.7% Logistic: 9.7% 26.0% 12.9% 5.5% 1.8% 4.8% 10.6% 4.4% Bayesian: 11.5% 12.0% 5.9% 0.8% 1.5% 7.1% 26.7% 10.1% Consensus: 9.4% 24.7% 13.1% 6.1% 4.1% 8.3% 22.0% 15.7% DTOPS: 18.0% 35.0% 17.0% 9.0% 7.0% 3.0% 7.0% 11.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 57 62 68 75 81 84 85 86 87 84 80 18HR AGO 45 44 50 55 61 68 74 77 78 79 80 77 73 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 52 59 65 68 69 70 71 68 64 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 48 54 57 58 59 60 57 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT