* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 49 46 43 36 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 49 46 43 36 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 51 49 46 42 34 28 24 21 20 20 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 24 29 33 30 28 28 23 17 13 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 3 1 0 1 -2 -5 -6 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 192 206 209 210 217 222 244 259 292 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 133 131 127 127 128 132 135 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 56 54 46 43 41 36 39 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 12 10 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 70 56 36 18 2 18 18 4 4 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 41 70 65 53 37 12 10 10 -7 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 12 8 4 0 0 0 -1 0 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1887 1801 1716 1639 1564 1434 1288 1152 1069 996 933 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.2 137.9 138.6 139.3 139.9 141.1 142.5 143.8 144.6 145.3 145.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 6 7 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 9 5 3 1 2 3 10 17 17 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -19. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -7. -14. -23. -30. -35. -36. -35. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.6 137.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##