* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 71 77 80 87 89 91 89 89 86 84 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 71 77 80 87 89 91 89 89 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 71 74 78 84 92 94 90 88 89 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 12 13 11 5 7 9 2 5 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 4 2 0 3 7 0 1 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 301 229 260 305 338 25 353 286 242 171 319 297 279 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.9 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 145 145 142 137 139 132 131 135 135 134 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 145 145 142 136 137 127 124 127 125 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 70 71 73 72 67 67 63 59 60 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 27 30 29 33 34 36 35 34 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 53 59 67 77 76 65 71 82 73 76 74 68 92 200 MB DIV 135 149 155 95 36 38 95 91 50 60 41 41 35 700-850 TADV -5 1 0 -1 0 1 2 2 4 5 3 5 13 LAND (KM) 1111 1234 1361 1498 1638 1931 1850 1750 1782 1810 1855 1961 2103 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.5 17.0 18.4 19.8 21.3 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.3 28.6 29.9 31.3 32.6 35.4 38.0 40.3 41.7 43.1 44.6 45.5 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 17 17 16 14 24 21 12 15 23 30 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 6. 7. 10. 9. 7. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 22. 25. 32. 34. 36. 34. 34. 31. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.8 27.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 15.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.67 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 53.3% 37.6% 19.0% 13.5% 35.7% 33.4% 22.5% Logistic: 13.5% 36.9% 19.6% 12.0% 5.6% 16.5% 14.6% 7.9% Bayesian: 17.4% 45.3% 24.5% 6.6% 3.5% 20.3% 26.2% 4.4% Consensus: 14.4% 45.2% 27.3% 12.5% 7.5% 24.2% 24.7% 11.6% DTOPS: 23.0% 21.0% 10.0% 7.0% 2.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 7( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 67 71 77 80 87 89 91 89 89 86 84 18HR AGO 55 54 60 64 70 73 80 82 84 82 82 79 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 61 64 71 73 75 73 73 70 68 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 54 61 63 65 63 63 60 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT