* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 37 34 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 37 34 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 42 38 34 31 25 20 18 16 16 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 34 29 28 29 28 21 21 14 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 3 -1 1 -2 -3 -6 -4 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 210 211 212 211 217 231 246 267 276 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 132 128 127 127 131 135 135 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 56 55 50 45 40 37 36 37 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 11 9 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 55 41 18 4 17 17 12 12 0 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 80 78 75 64 27 22 11 -4 -16 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 11 7 2 0 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1811 1726 1643 1565 1488 1361 1257 1111 975 912 891 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.8 138.5 139.2 139.9 140.6 141.8 142.8 144.2 145.5 146.1 146.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 5 6 7 4 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 9 5 3 2 2 2 8 15 16 16 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -15. -20. -26. -33. -36. -38. -38. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.2 137.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##