* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 68 71 75 79 78 82 80 77 75 72 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 68 71 75 79 78 82 80 77 75 72 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 66 68 72 77 81 81 79 77 74 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 13 14 10 10 5 8 9 16 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 1 2 0 5 7 5 -1 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 261 269 306 350 1 340 294 264 221 210 242 233 237 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 139 135 136 138 137 130 133 135 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 142 139 135 134 134 132 123 123 123 122 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 71 72 73 70 68 63 57 55 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 30 31 29 31 30 33 31 31 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 56 60 70 64 60 68 72 77 88 94 94 91 103 200 MB DIV 136 139 102 50 41 74 108 89 68 52 -4 8 12 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 2 2 1 4 4 6 1 3 6 6 LAND (KM) 1234 1367 1504 1642 1782 1934 1796 1773 1794 1841 1924 2040 2127 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.8 16.2 17.7 19.2 20.7 22.2 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.9 31.3 32.6 34.0 36.8 39.0 40.8 42.4 43.8 45.0 45.7 46.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 15 14 14 14 27 18 10 16 25 46 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 4. 1. 5. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 24. 23. 27. 25. 22. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.2 28.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 28.8% 16.6% 12.5% 9.8% 16.7% 17.3% 19.7% Logistic: 7.9% 23.1% 11.2% 7.8% 4.3% 11.3% 8.7% 3.6% Bayesian: 10.6% 22.9% 8.2% 1.4% 1.4% 10.1% 21.9% 2.0% Consensus: 8.6% 24.9% 12.0% 7.2% 5.2% 12.7% 16.0% 8.4% DTOPS: 9.0% 32.0% 26.0% 28.0% 18.0% 9.0% 6.0% 7.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 68 71 75 79 78 82 80 77 75 72 18HR AGO 55 54 58 63 66 70 74 73 77 75 72 70 67 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 63 67 66 70 68 65 63 60 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 52 56 55 59 57 54 52 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT