* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 52 54 58 63 65 67 69 71 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 51 53 57 62 64 66 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 49 52 57 62 66 69 70 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 10 10 13 15 11 10 4 5 10 10 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 -5 0 0 0 2 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 21 19 26 48 65 54 59 11 23 347 9 315 277 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 166 164 163 152 153 154 148 146 143 144 148 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 159 157 154 142 138 136 126 121 119 122 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 69 69 67 62 55 49 44 41 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 -8 -21 -26 -32 -25 -19 2 0 19 7 24 200 MB DIV 46 41 28 17 43 14 14 5 -6 -19 -13 -9 11 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 5 7 -3 3 4 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 56 20 129 262 395 642 833 986 1059 1059 1003 955 875 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.8 21.9 24.0 25.6 26.8 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 65.8 65.6 65.3 64.9 64.1 63.4 62.6 62.3 62.6 63.4 64.6 66.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 12 12 10 8 5 2 2 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 81 72 73 75 52 32 37 37 39 34 28 32 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 14. 18. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 65.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 26.5% 16.5% 13.0% 10.6% 12.6% 15.8% 20.4% Logistic: 9.9% 23.8% 13.8% 11.7% 7.9% 25.4% 34.9% 16.3% Bayesian: 5.5% 15.9% 6.0% 1.3% 0.2% 6.3% 8.8% 1.5% Consensus: 7.9% 22.1% 12.1% 8.7% 6.2% 14.8% 19.8% 12.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 47 51 53 57 62 64 66 68 70 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 48 50 54 59 61 63 65 67 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 43 45 49 54 56 58 60 62 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 37 41 46 48 50 52 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT