* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 61 64 69 76 80 81 84 84 80 79 79 V (KT) LAND 55 57 61 64 69 76 80 81 84 84 80 79 79 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 60 62 69 76 80 80 78 76 75 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 14 9 8 7 9 6 12 18 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 1 0 3 7 5 2 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 277 307 339 346 349 292 274 247 202 257 269 257 257 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 135 135 140 138 133 129 132 134 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 138 135 134 137 133 127 120 121 121 121 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 70 70 70 71 68 63 60 61 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 29 29 31 33 34 34 36 37 35 36 39 850 MB ENV VOR 67 78 77 70 66 71 73 63 71 70 67 86 93 200 MB DIV 131 100 79 61 75 92 121 71 69 36 28 26 56 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 2 8 7 6 11 8 6 16 16 LAND (KM) 1403 1540 1679 1819 1961 1855 1781 1807 1867 1949 2029 2139 2206 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.6 17.2 18.9 20.5 21.8 23.2 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.6 33.0 34.3 35.7 38.1 40.0 41.6 42.9 44.1 45.1 45.6 45.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 11 10 9 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 14 12 27 23 13 12 27 43 34 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 8. 8. 5. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 21. 25. 26. 29. 29. 25. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.6 30.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 22.0% 15.1% 11.7% 9.4% 13.1% 16.2% 17.6% Logistic: 5.0% 15.9% 7.2% 4.8% 3.1% 7.3% 3.6% 1.8% Bayesian: 3.0% 12.3% 4.8% 0.8% 0.5% 4.2% 3.3% 0.6% Consensus: 4.7% 16.7% 9.0% 5.8% 4.3% 8.2% 7.7% 6.7% DTOPS: 11.0% 34.0% 21.0% 8.0% 2.0% 14.0% 10.0% 14.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 7( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 61 64 69 76 80 81 84 84 80 79 79 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 66 73 77 78 81 81 77 76 76 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 59 66 70 71 74 74 70 69 69 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 57 61 62 65 65 61 60 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT