* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 77 83 93 93 95 92 91 87 82 79 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 77 83 93 93 95 92 91 87 82 79 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 67 71 76 87 92 92 87 83 83 80 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 8 4 2 5 9 12 17 21 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 1 3 6 8 2 -4 -2 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 289 341 17 12 348 224 265 251 271 271 259 258 246 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 135 136 136 138 137 130 130 133 136 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 134 135 134 134 131 123 121 121 121 119 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 71 72 70 66 62 61 64 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 32 33 37 36 39 38 39 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 84 84 79 71 72 71 78 75 82 76 93 115 114 200 MB DIV 121 122 104 103 95 109 123 74 55 42 25 53 48 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -4 -1 3 4 6 7 12 7 12 12 12 LAND (KM) 1545 1679 1815 1951 1931 1811 1790 1842 1914 2002 2114 2192 2299 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 15.1 16.4 18.1 19.8 21.3 22.8 24.2 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 31.7 33.0 34.3 35.6 36.9 39.1 40.8 42.2 43.5 44.6 45.4 45.5 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 13 15 26 17 11 21 35 42 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 10. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 33. 33. 35. 32. 31. 27. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.0 31.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.64 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 35.8% 25.0% 13.7% 11.8% 28.7% 25.1% 19.7% Logistic: 6.7% 24.7% 11.0% 8.0% 5.6% 12.4% 7.6% 2.7% Bayesian: 10.5% 33.9% 15.3% 2.9% 2.2% 15.5% 3.6% 0.7% Consensus: 8.3% 31.5% 17.1% 8.2% 6.5% 18.9% 12.1% 7.7% DTOPS: 25.0% 41.0% 25.0% 19.0% 8.0% 6.0% 9.0% 7.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 9( 13) 14( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 17( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 77 83 93 93 95 92 91 87 82 79 18HR AGO 60 59 64 71 77 87 87 89 86 85 81 76 73 12HR AGO 60 57 56 63 69 79 79 81 78 77 73 68 65 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 66 66 68 65 64 60 55 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT