* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/25/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 43 46 49 53 56 58 59 61 62 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 43 46 49 53 56 58 59 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 42 45 48 52 54 56 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 18 14 12 8 10 9 15 18 20 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 -6 -1 -1 -1 2 -1 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 32 45 62 67 43 32 339 19 359 4 347 318 263 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 28.8 29.0 29.3 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 149 153 157 149 145 148 153 153 150 154 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 150 139 142 143 130 121 124 128 127 130 137 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 67 62 56 51 51 48 44 43 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -15 -21 -11 -13 -6 3 0 4 16 21 31 13 200 MB DIV 35 27 40 23 15 13 4 5 -16 -5 -25 6 -1 700-850 TADV 2 6 -1 -2 -4 3 -1 1 0 -1 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 182 312 444 583 722 945 1080 1056 1041 1031 997 917 750 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.5 24.7 26.6 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 64.8 64.4 64.1 63.9 63.2 62.3 62.1 61.3 61.3 62.3 64.3 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 11 8 3 3 2 2 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 68 68 43 32 35 34 38 43 53 52 42 35 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.9 65.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 18.1% 12.3% 8.3% 8.2% 10.5% 14.4% 19.8% Logistic: 3.6% 18.3% 8.4% 4.2% 3.6% 12.4% 14.1% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.8% 0.2% Consensus: 3.1% 14.4% 7.4% 4.2% 3.9% 8.0% 10.1% 9.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/25/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 42 43 46 49 53 56 58 59 61 62 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 45 48 52 55 57 58 60 61 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 41 44 48 51 53 54 56 57 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 37 41 44 46 47 49 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT