* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/25/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 84 90 97 104 105 102 100 91 88 82 81 V (KT) LAND 70 77 84 90 97 104 105 102 100 91 88 82 81 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 82 87 92 100 103 97 91 87 85 82 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 4 1 6 9 5 11 18 23 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 1 4 5 4 2 0 0 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 316 8 24 348 343 270 241 244 252 270 265 249 243 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 136 136 140 138 133 130 134 136 136 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 135 133 136 134 127 122 122 123 121 119 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 72 73 73 69 63 62 63 61 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 32 32 34 36 39 38 40 38 40 41 44 850 MB ENV VOR 82 78 73 69 59 64 61 78 77 81 87 106 116 200 MB DIV 131 122 101 92 83 145 103 75 50 24 22 63 59 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 4 1 6 6 8 7 6 12 9 7 LAND (KM) 1699 1846 1993 1916 1846 1774 1795 1882 1948 2055 2155 2218 2345 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.7 17.3 19.2 20.7 22.2 23.9 25.4 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 33.2 34.6 36.0 37.1 38.3 40.2 41.9 43.1 44.5 45.4 45.8 45.6 44.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 17 28 23 12 14 28 49 23 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 9. 6. 9. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 27. 34. 35. 32. 30. 21. 18. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.4 33.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 16.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 7.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.4% 52.4% 42.1% 32.1% 22.4% 40.4% 30.2% 20.5% Logistic: 18.8% 45.2% 25.6% 19.4% 13.6% 22.6% 12.0% 2.8% Bayesian: 46.8% 73.9% 53.6% 25.0% 17.4% 22.9% 2.9% 0.2% Consensus: 29.0% 57.2% 40.4% 25.5% 17.8% 28.6% 15.0% 7.8% DTOPS: 59.0% 61.0% 44.0% 20.0% 14.0% 18.0% 12.0% 10.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 9( 13) 20( 30) 26( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 24( 26) 14( 36) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 77 84 90 97 104 105 102 100 91 88 82 81 18HR AGO 70 69 76 82 89 96 97 94 92 83 80 74 73 12HR AGO 70 67 66 72 79 86 87 84 82 73 70 64 63 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 67 74 75 72 70 61 58 52 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 77 84 75 69 65 66 63 61 52 49 43 42