* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 47 49 52 57 61 64 65 66 64 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 47 49 52 57 61 64 65 66 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 43 45 48 52 57 60 62 63 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 14 14 13 8 11 7 14 10 14 20 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -5 -2 -1 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 48 64 67 54 35 20 6 24 5 351 313 263 265 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 152 152 154 153 143 143 146 146 147 146 144 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 141 140 140 137 123 119 120 123 128 128 126 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 67 64 60 53 51 47 46 43 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 9 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -8 -20 -11 0 4 1 -2 24 14 38 33 200 MB DIV 32 42 30 13 4 1 -5 -2 -11 -11 0 7 7 700-850 TADV 5 -1 0 -3 0 2 1 2 -1 -2 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 307 433 559 684 810 983 1045 1050 990 909 842 742 689 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 22.2 23.3 24.4 25.5 26.9 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 64.7 64.4 64.1 63.8 63.0 62.4 62.0 62.5 63.7 65.5 67.2 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 5 2 2 4 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 69 46 32 33 36 29 35 43 36 31 55 31 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.1 65.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 20.1% 13.9% 11.1% 8.4% 11.4% 14.4% 17.9% Logistic: 7.7% 31.5% 19.1% 14.0% 11.7% 23.9% 18.7% 2.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 15.7% 4.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 22.5% 12.4% 8.6% 6.8% 12.3% 11.5% 6.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/25/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 45 47 49 52 57 61 64 65 66 64 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 44 46 49 54 58 61 62 63 61 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 41 44 49 53 56 57 58 56 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 34 37 42 46 49 50 51 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT