* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 93 97 102 98 92 86 79 76 74 76 V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 93 97 102 98 92 86 79 76 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 86 90 93 96 91 84 80 79 79 80 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 2 4 7 9 10 17 22 24 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 3 3 5 7 0 -5 -1 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 330 356 320 266 265 240 242 257 269 260 249 243 213 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 136 130 128 127 128 135 135 134 135 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 132 131 125 121 120 119 122 120 119 120 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 72 70 64 61 59 63 63 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 34 35 36 39 38 37 36 35 38 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 78 77 77 57 60 77 74 76 71 80 94 104 148 200 MB DIV 110 110 110 93 116 118 60 44 18 10 70 46 60 700-850 TADV -2 1 7 3 5 8 11 11 4 10 9 6 5 LAND (KM) 1834 1976 1925 1868 1818 1825 1875 1961 2073 2197 2307 2404 2202 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.8 18.4 20.3 22.1 23.5 24.8 26.4 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.8 37.2 38.2 39.2 40.8 42.1 43.5 44.8 45.1 44.5 43.8 42.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 11 10 11 11 9 7 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 18 29 20 10 9 20 46 26 16 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. 2. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 23. 17. 11. 4. 1. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.8 34.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 15.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.25 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.64 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 46.7% 38.1% 28.9% 17.5% 28.4% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 17.9% 40.7% 22.2% 16.0% 10.1% 14.8% 4.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 54.5% 69.5% 45.3% 17.8% 16.4% 11.5% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 30.7% 52.3% 35.2% 20.9% 14.6% 18.3% 7.5% 0.4% DTOPS: 55.0% 45.0% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0% 13.0% 7.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 20( 32) 24( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 8( 11) 1( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 87 93 97 102 98 92 86 79 76 74 76 18HR AGO 75 74 80 86 90 95 91 85 79 72 69 67 69 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 81 86 82 76 70 63 60 58 60 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 74 70 64 58 51 48 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 87 78 72 68 64 58 52 45 42 40 42