* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 32 31 31 28 28 22 24 23 25 30 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 3 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 224 224 222 229 240 250 271 266 272 277 273 266 251 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.9 27.7 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 119 118 118 118 117 119 123 130 138 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 51 47 42 37 34 30 30 30 30 27 29 31 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 16 17 23 21 27 31 36 44 50 73 79 111 200 MB DIV 18 15 14 10 10 9 -20 1 -24 -27 -30 28 44 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1363 1319 1319 1309 1299 1278 1257 1267 1300 1352 1400 1433 1439 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.0 19.2 18.3 17.4 16.9 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 141.8 142.2 142.2 142.3 142.4 142.6 142.8 142.7 142.4 142.0 141.7 141.5 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 3 5 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 14 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 875 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -21. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.2 141.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##