* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 40 44 49 52 55 57 58 57 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 40 44 49 52 55 57 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 33 34 37 40 42 44 46 48 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 16 13 10 11 13 14 14 11 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 54 51 35 34 33 10 14 353 22 342 293 261 262 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 153 148 146 149 150 150 149 147 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 139 137 130 124 123 125 129 131 130 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 66 65 58 54 51 48 45 49 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -9 -15 -11 -12 -2 -7 -14 7 0 17 26 33 200 MB DIV 38 33 6 3 22 12 -3 -10 -16 -17 21 7 24 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 0 8 2 5 0 1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 450 574 697 802 906 1056 1101 1061 965 866 807 707 631 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.3 26.2 27.3 27.5 27.1 26.4 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 64.1 63.7 63.4 63.1 62.1 61.5 61.5 62.1 63.7 65.8 67.6 68.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 5 1 3 6 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 34 34 35 33 40 51 53 42 34 55 29 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.3 64.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 15.3% 10.6% 7.2% 6.9% 9.4% 11.7% 16.8% Logistic: 3.5% 15.2% 8.1% 4.0% 2.5% 5.9% 6.4% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 10.7% 6.3% 3.8% 3.2% 5.1% 6.1% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 37 40 44 49 52 55 57 58 57 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 39 43 48 51 54 56 57 56 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 40 45 48 51 53 54 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 33 38 41 44 46 47 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT