* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 89 91 93 90 86 84 81 79 80 80 83 V (KT) LAND 80 84 89 91 93 90 86 84 81 79 80 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 87 90 90 87 81 78 77 77 79 82 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 13 8 13 17 17 14 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 2 6 6 3 -1 -3 0 1 6 4 SHEAR DIR 263 283 290 229 221 213 237 248 262 250 230 204 204 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 135 129 129 127 128 131 137 135 135 141 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 131 124 123 120 119 120 123 119 120 126 119 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 70 71 68 62 60 59 65 66 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 34 36 35 35 36 35 37 39 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 78 71 55 54 62 61 74 73 64 79 100 93 82 200 MB DIV 104 103 90 101 118 73 72 10 28 38 68 64 106 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 6 7 5 8 10 11 11 11 16 21 LAND (KM) 1991 1914 1843 1814 1794 1837 1898 2017 2148 2237 2337 2237 2077 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.8 19.5 21.3 22.9 24.4 26.1 28.1 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.4 38.6 39.6 40.5 41.9 43.3 44.3 44.9 45.1 44.6 43.4 41.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 22 27 17 12 8 15 32 37 17 14 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 13. 10. 6. 4. 1. -1. 0. 0. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.3 36.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 28.0% 22.4% 13.8% 13.4% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 23.6% 12.4% 9.0% 4.8% 6.7% 1.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 29.7% 23.7% 12.2% 3.6% 2.4% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 25.1% 15.6% 8.8% 6.9% 7.4% 0.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 45.0% 60.0% 52.0% 29.0% 20.0% 19.0% 9.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 11( 17) 14( 29) 12( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 14( 16) 1( 17) 1( 17) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 89 91 93 90 86 84 81 79 80 80 83 18HR AGO 80 79 84 86 88 85 81 79 76 74 75 75 78 12HR AGO 80 77 76 78 80 77 73 71 68 66 67 67 70 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 69 65 63 60 58 59 59 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 62 58 56 53 51 52 52 55 IN 12HR 80 84 89 80 74 70 66 64 61 59 60 60 63