* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 93 96 97 94 88 84 78 76 77 80 80 V (KT) LAND 85 89 93 96 97 94 88 84 78 76 77 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 85 89 91 92 91 87 82 79 78 78 81 86 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 1 4 9 11 21 15 11 12 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 10 9 7 1 -3 4 7 7 1 7 SHEAR DIR 283 302 282 205 215 234 266 275 264 232 226 191 200 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 130 129 128 127 128 135 136 136 139 136 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 125 122 121 119 118 121 121 122 125 121 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.2 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 70 65 61 61 64 69 69 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 36 36 36 35 36 35 37 40 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 81 61 53 63 71 68 80 56 57 71 56 58 55 200 MB DIV 101 83 72 117 113 86 47 38 35 47 54 81 112 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 6 6 10 13 13 13 19 18 17 18 LAND (KM) 1891 1828 1772 1777 1790 1857 1956 2115 2226 2360 2307 2138 2003 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.0 16.7 18.5 20.3 22.2 23.5 25.3 27.6 29.8 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.7 39.8 40.5 41.2 42.5 43.6 44.1 44.5 44.1 42.9 41.4 39.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 11 10 8 7 11 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 19 13 10 9 20 41 24 15 11 11 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 3. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 9. 3. -1. -7. -9. -8. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.5 37.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.4% 35.6% 30.2% 18.9% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.9% 31.0% 18.4% 11.7% 6.7% 6.5% 1.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 24.3% 33.5% 19.3% 6.6% 4.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 19.5% 33.4% 22.6% 12.4% 8.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 32.0% 26.0% 17.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 14( 23) 20( 38) 16( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 13( 30) 3( 32) 0( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 93 96 97 94 88 84 78 76 77 80 80 18HR AGO 85 84 88 91 92 89 83 79 73 71 72 75 75 12HR AGO 85 82 81 84 85 82 76 72 66 64 65 68 68 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 76 73 67 63 57 55 56 59 59 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 57 53 47 45 46 49 49 IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 68 62 58 52 50 51 54 54 IN 12HR 85 89 93 84 78 74 68 64 58 56 57 60 60