* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 41 42 47 49 53 55 53 50 49 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 41 42 47 49 53 55 53 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 40 41 42 42 42 42 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 10 14 13 20 19 18 20 29 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 0 0 2 1 -1 -2 -7 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 26 12 7 9 346 355 341 350 313 277 253 240 243 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 145 145 145 147 146 152 141 144 143 139 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 135 126 124 123 123 119 129 122 124 123 120 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 59 56 51 47 44 41 45 50 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 -5 1 8 -3 0 3 11 22 29 35 24 200 MB DIV 18 20 24 23 16 9 -21 -15 -12 15 2 31 23 700-850 TADV -2 0 9 3 3 3 0 0 2 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 760 885 1010 1067 1125 1211 1254 1153 1052 960 885 817 821 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.1 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.3 62.8 62.3 61.9 60.8 60.1 61.0 62.8 64.3 65.4 66.6 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 6 5 4 2 6 7 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 29 35 38 43 38 52 27 28 47 37 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 12. 14. 18. 20. 18. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.0 63.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 13.8% 9.8% 7.1% 6.5% 8.9% 10.4% 13.8% Logistic: 1.8% 4.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2% 1.5% 1.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.3% 4.3% 2.8% 2.2% 3.5% 4.1% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/26/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 41 42 47 49 53 55 53 50 49 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 39 40 45 47 51 53 51 48 47 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 36 41 43 47 49 47 44 43 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 34 36 40 42 40 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT