* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 93 95 97 94 85 79 76 73 74 76 77 V (KT) LAND 85 89 93 95 97 94 85 79 76 73 74 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 89 90 90 86 81 79 78 77 80 83 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 1 2 7 11 18 18 16 14 13 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 9 10 6 6 1 1 10 7 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 316 164 74 213 215 271 280 267 262 214 209 197 197 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.3 27.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 129 128 127 128 132 136 135 137 142 132 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 126 123 121 119 119 120 122 121 121 125 117 106 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 69 68 63 62 62 67 70 68 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 37 37 39 39 36 36 38 39 41 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 69 61 70 73 63 69 64 63 59 70 52 62 90 200 MB DIV 83 95 131 120 94 77 25 48 37 71 46 110 108 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 7 8 13 17 15 25 26 18 26 23 LAND (KM) 1812 1791 1780 1806 1830 1925 2056 2200 2369 2384 2226 2086 1947 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.8 19.6 21.5 23.1 24.9 26.8 28.7 30.8 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 39.7 40.7 41.3 42.0 43.0 43.9 44.2 43.9 43.1 42.0 40.3 38.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 10 10 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 18 12 9 8 15 34 29 15 12 12 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 9. 0. -6. -9. -12. -11. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.8 38.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.10 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 31.4% 27.0% 15.5% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.5% 25.0% 15.4% 12.0% 6.5% 5.8% 2.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 18.9% 9.5% 9.6% 3.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 16.7% 21.9% 17.3% 10.5% 7.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 36.0% 31.0% 20.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 14( 23) 20( 38) 16( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 2( 26) 2( 27) 1( 28) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 93 95 97 94 85 79 76 73 74 76 77 18HR AGO 85 84 88 90 92 89 80 74 71 68 69 71 72 12HR AGO 85 82 81 83 85 82 73 67 64 61 62 64 65 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 77 74 65 59 56 53 54 56 57 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 54 48 45 42 43 45 46 IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 69 60 54 51 48 49 51 52 IN 12HR 85 89 93 84 78 74 65 59 56 53 54 56 57