* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 40 41 44 50 51 54 50 48 45 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 40 41 44 50 51 54 50 48 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 39 41 41 42 42 42 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 9 14 15 14 20 14 15 22 30 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 17 16 8 349 357 345 350 339 300 252 247 232 247 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 142 146 148 145 149 147 137 133 133 136 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 123 123 125 125 119 124 126 119 113 112 117 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 56 54 51 46 44 44 50 52 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 11 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 5 4 9 7 -2 5 3 22 19 14 4 200 MB DIV 21 22 17 6 -3 -11 -20 -9 1 1 11 21 9 700-850 TADV 0 7 3 3 4 2 0 2 1 0 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 893 984 1076 1130 1187 1210 1186 1113 976 939 937 881 784 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.9 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.1 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 63.0 62.4 61.6 60.9 60.2 60.5 61.7 63.6 65.0 65.7 66.8 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 5 1 4 7 8 4 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 30 43 49 48 50 44 21 27 27 26 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 13 CX,CY: 2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 9. 15. 16. 19. 15. 13. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.2 63.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 15.1% 10.9% 7.9% 7.7% 9.6% 11.2% 14.1% Logistic: 4.4% 10.1% 9.1% 6.3% 1.2% 6.5% 3.8% 2.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 8.4% 6.8% 4.7% 3.0% 5.4% 5.0% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/26/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 40 41 44 50 51 54 50 48 45 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 38 39 42 48 49 52 48 46 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 34 37 43 44 47 43 41 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 29 35 36 39 35 33 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT