* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 114 112 108 99 88 77 70 69 71 70 76 V (KT) LAND 110 114 114 112 108 99 88 77 70 69 71 70 76 V (KT) LGEM 110 114 111 105 100 91 84 79 75 74 79 83 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 9 7 13 26 24 14 14 9 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 10 9 6 8 4 -1 5 10 3 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 275 273 226 233 244 291 292 282 235 241 222 228 198 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 126 124 127 132 133 132 134 134 136 127 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 119 116 119 122 120 119 119 117 120 115 103 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 69 72 70 68 66 61 62 65 71 71 69 67 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 36 39 39 38 38 37 37 40 44 44 48 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 65 61 68 63 44 43 41 36 38 45 110 200 MB DIV 97 155 135 118 95 66 25 37 54 60 53 101 151 700-850 TADV 5 6 10 11 11 17 20 13 22 22 27 37 35 LAND (KM) 1764 1778 1800 1829 1857 1971 2090 2268 2457 2362 2229 2080 1932 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.5 20.4 21.9 23.6 25.6 27.2 28.9 31.3 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.5 41.3 41.9 42.5 43.5 44.0 43.8 43.2 42.5 41.4 39.4 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 9 12 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 7 6 10 35 37 17 12 10 10 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -26. -34. -42. -47. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -1. 1. 5. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. 0. 4. 4. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 2. -2. -11. -22. -33. -40. -41. -39. -40. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.2 39.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.9% 16.2% 8.5% 4.9% 1.6% 2.5% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 31.3% 3.5% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.1% 6.6% 3.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 33.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 28( 64) 21( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 2( 26) 2( 27) 11( 35) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 114 114 112 108 99 88 77 70 69 71 70 76 18HR AGO 110 109 109 107 103 94 83 72 65 64 66 65 71 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 100 91 80 69 62 61 63 62 68 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 96 87 76 65 58 57 59 58 64 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 82 71 60 53 52 54 53 59 IN 6HR 110 114 105 99 96 90 79 68 61 60 62 61 67 IN 12HR 110 114 114 105 99 95 84 73 66 65 67 66 72