* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 49 50 51 52 55 56 53 50 44 40 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 49 50 51 52 55 56 53 50 44 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 46 48 49 50 51 52 51 50 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 16 16 11 18 19 17 18 31 32 44 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 1 1 -1 -2 -5 0 -3 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 12 4 351 357 360 346 354 318 274 255 245 248 254 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 146 147 147 150 140 135 134 138 142 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 123 123 122 121 127 120 116 116 119 120 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 53 53 50 46 44 50 55 60 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 8 10 -3 -2 -3 6 25 29 25 18 1 200 MB DIV 18 15 3 6 8 -15 -7 -12 30 12 40 21 5 700-850 TADV 6 3 2 2 0 0 0 3 3 4 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 977 1052 1129 1157 1186 1181 1129 1042 962 917 853 822 789 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 62.5 61.8 61.2 60.7 60.4 61.1 62.8 64.2 65.7 67.3 68.6 69.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 3 2 5 7 6 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 39 47 50 51 54 24 21 30 26 30 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -3. -7. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 15. 17. 13. 10. 4. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.9 63.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 19.5% 13.9% 11.5% 9.0% 11.3% 13.7% 13.4% Logistic: 8.6% 12.7% 15.7% 12.2% 1.5% 5.5% 3.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.9% 3.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 11.8% 10.4% 8.1% 3.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/26/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 49 50 51 52 55 56 53 50 44 40 18HR AGO 40 39 43 45 46 47 48 51 52 49 46 40 36 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 40 41 44 45 42 39 33 29 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 33 36 37 34 31 25 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT