* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 117 112 107 95 83 78 72 71 70 69 66 V (KT) LAND 115 119 117 112 107 95 83 78 72 71 70 69 66 V (KT) LGEM 115 118 113 106 100 91 85 82 79 78 80 81 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 11 10 11 21 24 15 18 11 7 8 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 5 7 6 0 1 10 8 5 7 4 12 SHEAR DIR 246 231 236 239 283 286 286 279 247 215 204 202 170 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.3 26.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 126 130 132 132 132 136 136 129 123 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 117 118 120 120 118 119 121 120 114 110 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 65 64 61 62 67 70 69 65 60 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 39 38 38 39 37 39 40 43 46 47 45 850 MB ENV VOR 66 61 50 55 63 47 42 48 47 32 54 72 140 200 MB DIV 169 153 123 97 93 23 32 52 78 58 92 100 91 700-850 TADV 7 10 9 10 11 17 17 21 35 19 31 30 33 LAND (KM) 1769 1798 1829 1868 1912 2042 2179 2347 2453 2300 2160 2034 1918 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.4 21.2 22.7 24.3 26.3 28.2 30.1 32.5 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 40.5 41.2 41.9 42.4 42.9 43.6 43.8 43.6 42.6 41.4 40.2 38.1 35.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 9 11 11 13 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 6 10 18 34 27 14 11 10 8 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. -19. -30. -39. -47. -53. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -8. -4. 0. 4. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -3. -8. -20. -32. -37. -43. -44. -45. -46. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.9 40.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.3% 16.2% 8.8% 6.4% 1.8% 2.2% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 21.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.2% 5.6% 3.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 27( 66) 17( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 51 15( 58) 6( 61) 30( 73) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 119 117 112 107 95 83 78 72 71 70 69 66 18HR AGO 115 114 112 107 102 90 78 73 67 66 65 64 61 12HR AGO 115 112 111 106 101 89 77 72 66 65 64 63 60 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 100 88 76 71 65 64 63 62 59 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 84 72 67 61 60 59 58 55 IN 6HR 115 119 110 104 101 95 83 78 72 71 70 69 66 IN 12HR 115 119 117 108 102 98 86 81 75 74 73 72 69