* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 47 50 53 54 50 46 44 44 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 47 50 53 54 50 46 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 43 44 45 47 47 46 43 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 17 11 13 19 15 20 27 36 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 348 355 359 348 353 323 288 248 243 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 145 145 147 145 136 131 131 129 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 123 121 119 122 123 116 111 111 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 52 51 44 44 46 52 56 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 7 8 7 8 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 9 -1 5 -9 4 0 24 15 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 2 3 15 -19 -22 -11 5 16 19 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 2 0 0 0 4 0 1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1076 1138 1202 1220 1239 1220 1161 1099 1081 1035 975 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.4 61.7 61.0 60.6 60.2 60.4 61.5 63.0 64.3 65.5 66.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 1 3 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 40 43 44 43 47 42 20 16 20 17 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 10. 13. 14. 10. 6. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.6 62.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 17.3% 12.4% 10.2% 8.0% 10.4% 13.1% 11.4% Logistic: 7.9% 10.2% 14.8% 11.7% 1.3% 4.9% 3.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.9% 9.3% 7.4% 3.1% 5.1% 5.5% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/27/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 47 47 50 53 54 50 46 44 44 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 44 47 50 51 47 43 41 41 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 39 42 45 46 42 38 36 36 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 34 37 38 34 30 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT