* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 119 113 108 94 84 76 73 71 72 72 63 V (KT) LAND 125 123 119 113 108 94 84 76 73 71 72 72 63 V (KT) LGEM 125 122 116 109 103 92 87 84 81 82 82 80 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 13 12 12 24 23 16 13 16 18 19 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 6 3 3 0 4 10 5 0 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 242 238 241 255 278 289 279 241 261 236 237 208 182 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.3 26.9 25.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 128 132 132 132 132 134 136 129 125 115 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 120 123 121 118 118 120 120 113 110 102 90 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.5 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 65 62 61 66 73 71 70 67 55 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 39 38 38 36 38 39 41 43 47 48 43 850 MB ENV VOR 53 42 55 57 52 37 37 36 30 44 56 125 113 200 MB DIV 143 115 88 92 73 21 42 45 34 63 80 117 74 700-850 TADV 15 11 13 15 13 16 14 22 30 27 28 18 -13 LAND (KM) 1824 1858 1895 1962 2033 2159 2332 2475 2319 2175 2049 1947 1919 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.5 24.2 26.0 27.9 29.9 32.0 34.6 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.2 41.9 42.6 43.0 43.4 43.8 43.7 42.9 41.7 40.3 38.7 36.4 33.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 9 8 9 10 11 12 14 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 13 26 33 31 14 12 9 8 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -9. -15. -25. -37. -48. -58. -66. -72. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -16. -12. -7. -2. 2. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 9. 11. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -17. -31. -41. -49. -52. -54. -53. -53. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.1 41.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 435.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 33( 58) 28( 70) 16( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 6( 9) 29( 35) 4( 38) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 123 119 113 108 94 84 76 73 71 72 72 63 18HR AGO 125 124 120 114 109 95 85 77 74 72 73 73 64 12HR AGO 125 122 121 115 110 96 86 78 75 73 74 74 65 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 110 96 86 78 75 73 74 74 65 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 92 82 74 71 69 70 70 61 IN 6HR 125 123 114 108 105 96 86 78 75 73 74 74 65 IN 12HR 125 123 119 110 104 100 90 82 79 77 78 78 69