* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 38 38 40 42 47 47 47 45 44 44 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 38 38 40 42 47 47 47 45 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 34 34 34 35 37 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 15 21 16 19 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 351 1 346 346 347 313 272 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 144 144 146 142 134 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 122 117 118 122 121 115 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 52 48 44 43 47 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 -7 1 -11 -1 -10 6 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 2 7 -13 -19 -8 -7 31 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 0 0 0 3 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1161 1211 1264 1276 1288 1226 1170 1118 1039 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 60.7 59.9 59.8 59.8 60.7 61.8 63.5 64.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 4 1 2 4 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 44 40 38 36 42 34 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.1 61.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.9% 10.1% 7.1% 0.0% 9.1% 10.9% 9.3% Logistic: 2.5% 2.4% 3.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.6% 4.5% 2.9% 0.0% 3.3% 3.9% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 38 38 40 42 47 47 47 45 44 44 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 37 39 41 46 46 46 44 43 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 34 36 41 41 41 39 38 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 29 34 34 34 32 31 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT