* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 110 104 99 86 82 79 79 79 79 72 64 V (KT) LAND 120 115 110 104 99 86 82 79 79 79 79 72 64 V (KT) LGEM 120 112 105 99 94 89 88 88 89 88 84 75 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 12 16 21 20 14 18 11 20 19 28 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 3 3 2 5 10 3 2 -3 0 11 6 SHEAR DIR 240 246 283 293 292 279 252 246 219 239 205 174 191 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.2 24.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 131 131 132 133 135 136 134 127 119 103 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 121 120 119 119 120 120 118 112 107 94 81 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 60 61 59 64 70 68 66 62 56 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 39 37 37 37 36 41 45 47 49 51 48 47 850 MB ENV VOR 61 64 53 35 28 31 43 44 59 62 101 110 130 200 MB DIV 104 105 71 21 16 34 48 47 72 93 164 114 67 700-850 TADV 21 18 13 10 16 16 18 24 24 33 13 -17 -6 LAND (KM) 1889 1940 1995 2071 2149 2303 2460 2342 2189 2038 1960 1927 1595 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.6 22.5 24.0 25.7 27.5 29.5 31.9 34.3 37.8 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.1 43.4 43.7 44.0 43.9 43.2 42.2 40.9 39.1 36.6 33.0 28.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 9 11 13 15 20 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 14 27 34 32 30 15 13 10 10 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -22. -33. -43. -53. -60. -66. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -14. -10. -5. -1. 2. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -21. -34. -38. -41. -41. -41. -41. -48. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 19.0 42.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 522.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 29( 52) 21( 62) 10( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 15( 17) 3( 19) 1( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 115 110 104 99 86 82 79 79 79 79 72 64 18HR AGO 120 119 114 108 103 90 86 83 83 83 83 76 68 12HR AGO 120 117 116 110 105 92 88 85 85 85 85 78 70 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 105 92 88 85 85 85 85 78 70 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 88 84 81 81 81 81 74 66 IN 6HR 120 115 106 100 97 90 86 83 83 83 83 76 68 IN 12HR 120 115 110 101 95 91 87 84 84 84 84 77 69