* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 100 94 89 81 81 77 80 76 78 70 56 V (KT) LAND 110 104 100 94 89 81 81 77 80 76 78 70 56 V (KT) LGEM 110 102 95 90 86 85 86 86 86 82 77 67 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 23 22 20 14 13 16 22 22 37 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 2 1 5 9 3 1 -2 4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 249 282 290 286 286 282 256 240 240 236 196 192 185 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.5 25.4 23.0 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 134 135 134 135 136 133 121 113 98 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 120 121 121 119 119 120 118 108 102 90 76 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 61 64 68 69 66 63 64 52 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 39 39 38 38 39 45 46 49 49 51 48 45 850 MB ENV VOR 66 61 37 30 34 33 44 39 60 57 126 94 104 200 MB DIV 98 71 33 34 27 31 81 41 70 103 179 96 62 700-850 TADV 13 15 17 23 20 23 17 20 29 31 -6 -80 -156 LAND (KM) 1926 1991 2061 2145 2230 2379 2384 2246 2097 1963 1897 1877 1369 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.9 26.8 28.5 30.6 33.1 35.9 40.0 45.0 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.6 44.0 44.1 44.2 43.8 43.1 42.0 40.5 38.4 35.5 31.3 26.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 14 17 22 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 30 35 33 30 20 13 11 9 11 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -26. -34. -43. -49. -55. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -13. -9. -6. -4. -1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 2. 3. 7. 6. 8. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -16. -21. -29. -29. -32. -30. -34. -32. -40. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.8 43.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 459.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 22( 45) 11( 51) 8( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 10( 19) 1( 20) 0( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 104 100 94 89 81 81 77 80 76 78 70 56 18HR AGO 110 109 105 99 94 86 86 82 85 81 83 75 61 12HR AGO 110 107 106 100 95 87 87 83 86 82 84 76 62 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 95 87 87 83 86 82 84 76 62 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 83 83 79 82 78 80 72 58 IN 6HR 110 104 95 89 86 82 82 78 81 77 79 71 57 IN 12HR 110 104 100 91 85 81 81 77 80 76 78 70 56