* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 95 92 87 82 78 80 78 79 76 67 47 V (KT) LAND 105 100 95 92 87 82 78 80 78 79 76 67 47 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 92 88 86 85 85 85 85 83 76 61 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 19 19 21 16 15 12 18 19 32 40 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 3 5 6 5 2 1 2 7 6 8 SHEAR DIR 266 286 292 283 282 271 258 235 243 224 198 193 202 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.4 24.9 22.1 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 135 135 135 135 135 131 121 109 94 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 119 121 120 119 119 119 116 109 100 87 75 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 61 64 68 67 65 62 61 43 40 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 38 38 38 38 41 43 48 48 50 50 47 38 850 MB ENV VOR 59 41 35 37 35 46 46 53 54 101 93 70 97 200 MB DIV 60 29 41 28 30 51 49 47 69 147 150 81 56 700-850 TADV 11 7 14 12 13 18 17 28 34 18 -25 -64 -25 LAND (KM) 1944 2014 2086 2174 2260 2386 2352 2201 2052 1942 1901 1705 1179 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.8 25.5 27.1 28.9 31.1 33.7 36.8 41.1 46.3 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.3 44.5 44.4 44.4 43.9 43.1 42.1 40.4 37.8 34.4 29.6 23.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 11 15 19 25 31 33 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 35 26 18 13 11 9 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -15. -23. -31. -38. -44. -50. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. -7. -5. -2. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 6. 6. 9. 8. 3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -25. -27. -26. -29. -38. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 20.4 44.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 17( 39) 10( 45) 8( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 1( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 100 95 92 87 82 78 80 78 79 76 67 47 18HR AGO 105 104 99 96 91 86 82 84 82 83 80 71 51 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 93 88 84 86 84 85 82 73 53 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 90 85 81 83 81 82 79 70 50 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 81 77 79 77 78 75 66 46 IN 6HR 105 100 91 85 82 79 75 77 75 76 73 64 44 IN 12HR 105 100 95 86 80 76 72 74 72 73 70 61 41