* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 92 89 86 81 79 80 81 82 75 60 52 V (KT) LAND 100 96 92 89 86 81 79 80 81 82 75 60 52 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 91 89 87 84 83 85 86 84 74 58 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 19 21 19 17 10 10 15 17 33 45 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 6 7 6 3 1 1 9 3 10 15 SHEAR DIR 272 288 290 287 279 264 241 221 231 195 203 189 220 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 26.8 26.0 23.7 20.1 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 135 133 136 135 136 124 119 102 86 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 121 121 119 120 118 120 111 109 95 81 74 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 64 67 69 67 64 63 50 41 40 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 36 38 39 41 44 46 48 50 48 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 34 31 36 41 41 63 56 106 66 52 89 200 MB DIV 35 44 37 21 39 77 32 46 87 163 110 51 62 700-850 TADV 9 12 15 13 20 21 15 25 33 13 -39 -31 -57 LAND (KM) 1963 2052 2142 2226 2287 2404 2283 2132 1994 1907 1951 1400 849 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.4 26.1 27.7 29.5 31.7 34.5 38.4 42.8 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.6 43.9 43.3 42.3 40.4 37.2 32.1 26.3 20.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 12 16 24 29 32 32 HEAT CONTENT 30 35 32 20 16 13 10 10 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -27. -34. -39. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -10. -6. -3. -1. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 9. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -19. -21. -20. -19. -18. -25. -40. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.9 44.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 440.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 13.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 13( 32) 10( 39) 8( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 2( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 92 89 86 81 79 80 81 82 75 60 52 18HR AGO 100 99 95 92 89 84 82 83 84 85 78 63 55 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 90 85 83 84 85 86 79 64 56 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 82 80 81 82 83 76 61 53 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 76 74 75 76 77 70 55 47 IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 75 73 74 75 76 69 54 46 IN 12HR 100 96 92 83 77 73 71 72 73 74 67 52 44