* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 93 89 87 82 85 84 85 81 71 56 52 V (KT) LAND 100 96 93 89 87 82 85 84 85 81 71 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 91 89 86 85 86 86 81 67 53 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 19 20 16 16 12 14 17 27 41 50 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 5 8 4 0 2 4 10 6 8 6 SHEAR DIR 294 284 286 278 269 269 231 242 217 203 193 210 228 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.7 25.3 22.3 17.6 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 135 136 137 135 134 132 124 113 96 80 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 120 120 121 118 117 116 111 106 90 76 73 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 62 67 68 67 64 62 58 43 39 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 39 39 40 41 47 47 49 49 46 41 44 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 27 30 36 29 50 57 91 91 54 74 139 200 MB DIV 53 38 16 41 64 52 44 70 126 154 85 53 71 700-850 TADV 15 15 13 21 18 19 17 33 23 -3 -44 40 -11 LAND (KM) 2072 2165 2256 2299 2337 2343 2178 2024 1923 1894 1675 1089 404 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.7 25.5 27.0 28.8 30.8 32.9 36.1 40.7 45.6 50.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 44.6 44.7 44.5 44.4 43.7 43.0 41.7 39.5 35.3 29.1 22.3 15.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 13 19 29 34 34 33 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 17 15 15 11 9 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -27. -34. -40. -46. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -10. -7. -4. -3. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 8. 9. 12. 12. 7. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -13. -18. -15. -16. -15. -19. -29. -44. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 22.0 44.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 14( 33) 10( 40) 8( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 93 89 87 82 85 84 85 81 71 56 52 18HR AGO 100 99 96 92 90 85 88 87 88 84 74 59 55 12HR AGO 100 97 96 92 90 85 88 87 88 84 74 59 55 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 83 86 85 86 82 72 57 53 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 76 79 78 79 75 65 50 46 IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 73 76 75 76 72 62 47 43 IN 12HR 100 96 93 84 78 74 77 76 77 73 63 48 44