* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 105 99 95 90 91 90 87 77 58 38 18 V (KT) LAND 110 108 105 99 95 90 91 90 87 77 58 38 18 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 107 102 97 91 89 89 85 72 55 40 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 20 19 13 13 15 22 32 49 48 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 8 6 6 5 0 2 8 8 6 9 5 SHEAR DIR 275 281 277 263 262 256 214 215 195 193 193 226 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 26.7 25.8 23.8 20.1 16.5 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 137 136 135 134 123 117 103 86 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 121 120 119 117 117 110 107 95 81 75 72 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 66 67 67 62 60 58 47 40 39 58 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 41 41 42 44 48 48 49 48 41 33 22 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 33 37 34 33 52 51 102 83 39 49 102 200 MB DIV 45 28 42 49 91 39 70 80 151 112 61 60 14 700-850 TADV 14 14 21 25 22 18 24 26 -1 -23 -14 -45 10 LAND (KM) 2143 2251 2293 2334 2376 2230 2082 1927 1841 1901 1430 834 224 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 24.0 25.0 25.7 26.4 28.1 29.8 32.0 35.0 38.5 43.0 48.1 53.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 44.8 44.7 44.5 44.3 43.6 42.8 41.2 37.6 32.7 26.7 20.2 13.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 7 8 9 11 17 24 29 33 34 35 HEAT CONTENT 28 17 16 15 13 9 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -27. -36. -46. -54. -61. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -12. -8. -6. -5. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 10. 1. -11. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -15. -20. -19. -20. -23. -33. -52. -72. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.9 45.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 3.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 17( 57) 12( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 1( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 105 99 95 90 91 90 87 77 58 38 18 18HR AGO 110 109 106 100 96 91 92 91 88 78 59 39 19 12HR AGO 110 107 106 100 96 91 92 91 88 78 59 39 19 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 96 91 92 91 88 78 59 39 19 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 86 87 86 83 73 54 34 DIS IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 87 88 87 84 74 55 35 15 IN 12HR 110 108 105 96 90 86 87 86 83 73 54 34 DIS