* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162019 09/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 38 38 39 40 40 41 41 40 42 46 46 V (KT) LAND 35 38 38 38 39 40 40 41 41 40 42 41 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 37 37 36 34 32 30 29 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 21 20 16 16 15 13 16 13 4 9 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 3 3 3 0 0 -2 4 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 68 67 74 90 85 102 102 110 200 196 160 228 249 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.7 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 161 162 162 165 161 163 157 156 161 164 155 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 7 6 4 3 3 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 80 78 70 60 50 37 35 42 41 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 82 83 89 93 120 56 73 33 45 24 30 14 200 MB DIV 138 128 98 107 107 74 44 49 7 36 21 37 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -14 -17 -11 -12 -3 0 0 0 3 0 6 2 LAND (KM) 216 179 143 117 72 13 135 102 20 37 67 -5 -36 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.7 20.2 22.5 24.3 26.3 26.7 26.2 27.1 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.7 101.7 102.7 103.6 105.7 107.5 109.0 111.2 111.3 110.0 110.1 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 13 12 12 14 15 13 13 8 3 3 10 16 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 22 23 31 19 23 24 26 32 29 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 7. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 99.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 SIXTEEN 09/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.02 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.79 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.1% Logistic: 1.3% 10.5% 3.1% 1.8% 0.4% 7.0% 7.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.5% 12.8% 8.2% 0.7% 0.1% 2.3% 2.4% 9.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 SIXTEEN 09/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##