* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 125 116 109 99 98 95 85 68 48 46 23 V (KT) LAND 130 131 125 116 109 99 98 95 85 68 48 46 23 V (KT) LGEM 130 130 124 117 110 100 95 91 83 68 55 43 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 16 22 20 16 16 15 29 46 65 55 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 9 3 0 1 2 5 12 9 7 3 8 SHEAR DIR 277 289 265 259 269 235 236 187 184 194 216 245 285 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.3 25.3 22.4 18.2 16.8 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 138 136 135 134 132 120 113 95 81 76 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 122 120 118 117 116 108 104 89 76 72 69 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -54.3 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 0.9 1.8 1.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 66 66 67 64 62 60 51 37 31 28 32 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 40 42 41 44 46 48 49 49 46 43 48 33 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 41 43 33 48 73 107 122 128 106 19 1 200 MB DIV 46 72 63 85 49 70 97 136 127 26 24 0 5 700-850 TADV 11 16 24 28 18 18 28 15 16 -7 -36 -3 33 LAND (KM) 2229 2272 2315 2368 2310 2164 1999 1856 1838 1761 1129 621 157 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.8 30.8 33.4 36.4 40.3 44.6 47.9 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 44.8 44.6 44.4 44.1 43.4 42.3 39.9 35.8 30.0 23.0 16.2 9.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 14 20 26 32 31 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 16 13 11 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -10. -17. -28. -42. -56. -69. -81. -90. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -15. -10. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. -5. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 5. 1. 7. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -5. -14. -21. -31. -32. -35. -45. -62. -82. -84.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 23.8 45.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -9.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 540.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.0% 9.0% 5.1% 2.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 3.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 38( 65) 28( 75) 21( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 131 125 116 109 99 98 95 85 68 48 46 23 18HR AGO 130 129 123 114 107 97 96 93 83 66 46 44 21 12HR AGO 130 127 126 117 110 100 99 96 86 69 49 47 24 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 113 103 102 99 89 72 52 50 27 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 101 100 97 87 70 50 48 25 IN 6HR 130 131 122 116 113 108 107 104 94 77 57 55 32 IN 12HR 130 131 125 116 110 106 105 102 92 75 55 53 30