* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162019 09/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 39 39 41 43 43 44 42 43 47 50 V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 39 35 36 38 38 38 33 36 40 33 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 35 34 32 30 26 28 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 18 17 17 12 9 10 6 3 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 7 2 3 0 -2 -1 2 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 59 67 74 89 90 88 98 113 125 99 118 284 33 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 161 160 161 163 164 163 163 161 161 160 155 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 5 6 3 6 3 5 2 6 700-500 MB RH 80 80 82 80 79 72 62 51 49 50 47 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 10 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 73 71 93 132 94 59 59 24 30 17 14 1 200 MB DIV 105 90 101 124 121 47 54 13 27 18 26 4 15 700-850 TADV -11 -15 -14 -14 -12 -4 0 -1 0 1 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 192 132 76 12 -5 68 98 90 33 -3 51 30 -36 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.9 19.0 20.8 23.0 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.2 26.7 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.9 101.5 102.9 104.2 106.2 107.5 108.9 108.6 108.9 109.8 110.1 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 13 17 15 13 11 6 2 4 4 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 19 22 27 22 26 28 27 31 31 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 8. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 100.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 SIXTEEN 09/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.14 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.75 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 24.1% 20.9% 15.8% 9.9% 20.1% 21.1% 32.6% Logistic: 2.5% 16.8% 5.4% 3.2% 0.6% 9.7% 6.9% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.7% 5.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% Consensus: 4.3% 15.5% 10.4% 6.8% 3.5% 10.1% 9.4% 11.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 SIXTEEN 09/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##