* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 134 126 117 111 103 98 95 79 64 51 27 DIS V (KT) LAND 135 134 126 117 111 103 98 95 79 64 51 27 DIS V (KT) LGEM 135 132 125 116 109 100 95 92 82 68 50 34 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 21 19 15 12 11 22 40 74 66 59 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 4 4 5 3 4 8 10 3 0 9 11 SHEAR DIR 282 268 263 264 259 232 228 191 199 206 217 264 288 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 26.7 25.8 23.7 20.1 17.2 14.8 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 135 135 136 123 117 102 86 78 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 120 118 118 119 110 107 95 80 74 70 69 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -55.2 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 65 63 63 59 45 34 23 38 49 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 44 43 44 46 48 48 51 49 52 54 43 34 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 42 34 28 52 60 120 138 155 41 -82 6 200 MB DIV 83 73 80 56 45 101 114 151 65 -2 11 37 18 700-850 TADV 15 25 26 21 18 26 25 16 0 -12 -8 -9 39 LAND (KM) 2285 2332 2382 2323 2244 2093 1946 1847 1924 1408 890 276 -77 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.2 28.0 29.8 32.0 35.0 38.6 42.8 47.2 50.8 53.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.7 44.4 44.2 43.8 43.5 42.5 40.8 37.5 32.3 26.4 20.1 13.7 7.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 12 17 24 29 31 30 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 11 9 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -20. -31. -47. -62. -78. -90.-100.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -16. -18. -14. -10. -10. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 8. 11. 14. -1. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -9. -18. -24. -32. -36. -40. -56. -71. -84.-108.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 24.7 44.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -15.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 40( 69) 29( 78) 25( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 2( 23) 0( 23) 0( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 134 126 117 111 103 98 95 79 64 51 27 DIS 18HR AGO 135 134 126 117 111 103 98 95 79 64 51 27 DIS 12HR AGO 135 132 131 122 116 108 103 100 84 69 56 32 DIS 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 119 111 106 103 87 72 59 35 DIS NOW 135 126 120 117 116 108 103 100 84 69 56 32 DIS IN 6HR 135 134 125 119 116 113 108 105 89 74 61 37 DIS IN 12HR 135 134 126 117 111 107 102 99 83 68 55 31 DIS