* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 44 45 46 46 45 45 44 47 50 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 44 45 46 46 45 45 44 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 43 43 42 40 37 34 32 31 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 18 18 18 12 11 7 4 5 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 5 5 0 0 -1 3 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 63 68 75 76 79 78 85 108 120 110 75 8 237 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 161 162 162 156 159 159 158 158 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 81 77 71 58 50 47 50 52 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 66 75 107 118 77 65 37 36 18 30 0 11 200 MB DIV 93 114 145 146 95 34 24 23 30 24 27 -2 11 700-850 TADV -13 -17 -17 -19 -9 -3 0 -2 0 0 3 0 7 LAND (KM) 149 114 89 34 20 106 149 80 83 69 69 32 21 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.0 21.1 22.7 24.1 25.1 25.3 25.2 25.7 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.6 102.5 103.6 104.7 106.5 108.1 109.1 109.7 109.8 109.6 109.7 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 14 14 12 10 7 3 1 1 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 21 21 27 25 16 21 28 30 29 32 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.7 100.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.06 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 26.6% 22.2% 16.9% 10.6% 0.0% 21.1% 18.0% Logistic: 2.9% 19.6% 6.7% 4.2% 0.7% 6.1% 2.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 4.8% 16.5% 10.1% 7.1% 3.7% 2.1% 7.9% 6.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##