* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 117 110 105 101 98 92 84 69 56 44 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 125 117 110 105 101 98 92 84 69 56 44 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 125 115 108 102 98 94 91 85 73 58 41 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 22 17 16 9 16 27 55 80 61 57 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 3 4 3 4 1 12 11 -7 1 14 4 SHEAR DIR 266 262 266 257 237 246 214 194 195 208 228 282 276 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.7 24.7 21.3 17.9 15.7 14.7 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 133 133 131 125 108 90 80 74 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 116 116 116 116 114 100 84 75 71 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -53.0 -57.2 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 63 63 62 54 41 29 27 38 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 44 43 45 46 47 48 48 49 49 52 51 37 33 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 40 30 44 63 93 131 159 109 -70 -68 -7 200 MB DIV 95 90 47 56 73 101 130 133 40 8 30 49 20 700-850 TADV 24 26 23 18 19 32 16 44 -24 0 -51 83 145 LAND (KM) 2328 2381 2337 2255 2174 2024 1890 1851 1686 1164 534 117 -58 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.3 27.0 27.9 28.8 30.8 33.6 37.3 41.2 45.5 49.7 52.5 54.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 44.2 43.9 43.5 43.1 41.7 38.9 34.6 29.4 23.3 16.9 11.9 8.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 15 22 27 30 30 26 18 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 9 8 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -10. -17. -27. -41. -55. -70. -81. -90. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -15. -15. -13. -11. -14. -19. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 6. 4. -15. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -20. -24. -27. -33. -41. -56. -69. -81.-107.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 25.5 44.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -8.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 523.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 29( 56) 23( 66) 21( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 117 110 105 101 98 92 84 69 56 44 18 DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 117 112 108 105 99 91 76 63 51 25 DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 116 112 109 103 95 80 67 55 29 DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 111 108 102 94 79 66 54 28 DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 103 97 89 74 61 49 23 DIS IN 6HR 125 117 108 102 99 97 91 83 68 55 43 17 DIS IN 12HR 125 117 110 101 95 91 85 77 62 49 37 DIS DIS