* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 49 49 50 49 49 50 54 56 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 31 33 36 36 37 36 32 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 33 31 33 33 32 30 28 27 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 4 6 6 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 2 1 1 -1 5 2 1 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 83 106 96 90 90 86 103 159 123 164 253 191 189 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 157 162 164 162 161 163 161 160 158 153 149 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -53.4 -53.5 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 6 6 7 3 5 3 4 2 4 2 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 75 72 64 52 46 47 48 48 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 92 124 118 102 67 58 22 30 14 4 -7 5 200 MB DIV 129 153 145 91 58 45 14 17 18 22 3 16 24 700-850 TADV -16 -16 -17 -6 -4 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 5 LAND (KM) 22 -28 -46 -75 39 75 97 40 41 -2 -39 -30 -56 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.3 19.1 20.2 21.2 23.0 24.2 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.7 28.2 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.6 103.6 104.7 105.7 107.2 108.7 109.4 109.7 110.0 110.2 110.4 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 10 8 5 4 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 18 24 27 23 25 31 29 27 24 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 101.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.78 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 25.9% 23.2% 17.8% 11.0% 21.8% 22.5% 31.6% Logistic: 2.2% 19.3% 8.0% 5.4% 1.5% 8.6% 2.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 5.6% Consensus: 4.5% 15.5% 10.6% 7.7% 4.2% 10.2% 8.3% 12.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##