* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 92 91 91 92 89 79 62 55 39 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 105 96 92 91 91 92 89 79 62 55 39 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 94 89 87 86 86 84 77 64 49 34 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 15 13 9 13 37 68 69 51 47 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 2 1 3 11 6 10 7 17 13 3 SHEAR DIR 254 259 257 242 220 236 177 186 198 215 259 289 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 26.6 25.5 23.3 19.6 16.4 15.1 14.5 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 133 133 135 123 114 100 84 75 72 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 116 116 119 110 106 93 78 71 68 65 63 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -50.3 -50.6 -53.8 -57.6 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 63 62 59 48 36 28 36 48 63 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 42 44 45 47 47 50 50 48 48 53 46 36 28 850 MB ENV VOR 44 33 28 44 46 47 105 151 144 88 -78 38 47 200 MB DIV 86 45 42 60 103 101 144 95 13 37 30 46 77 700-850 TADV 27 25 20 21 20 31 30 6 -44 -17 36 131 121 LAND (KM) 2367 2313 2241 2159 2079 1936 1843 1878 1390 877 422 196 167 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.2 28.0 29.0 29.9 32.2 35.4 39.7 44.2 48.2 51.6 54.0 55.7 LONG(DEG W) 44.4 44.0 43.6 43.1 42.6 40.6 37.0 32.0 26.3 21.0 16.4 13.0 10.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 12 18 26 30 29 25 19 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 8 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -28. -39. -50. -59. -66. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -10. -9. -7. -8. -14. -21. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 3. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 10. -1. -15. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -13. -14. -14. -13. -16. -26. -43. -50. -66. -85.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.4 44.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 13( 36) 12( 44) 13( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 96 92 91 91 92 89 79 62 55 39 20 DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 100 99 99 100 97 87 70 63 47 28 DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 100 101 98 88 71 64 48 29 DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 96 93 83 66 59 43 24 DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 87 84 74 57 50 34 15 DIS IN 6HR 105 96 87 81 78 78 75 65 48 41 25 DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 96 92 83 77 73 70 60 43 36 20 DIS DIS