* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 33 31 31 33 34 36 36 40 42 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 32 32 30 30 32 33 33 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 32 30 28 25 23 22 23 24 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 15 11 11 9 8 9 9 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 5 0 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 119 108 103 101 115 155 172 177 233 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.5 28.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 162 166 163 164 163 163 162 157 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 4 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 74 68 62 53 44 41 41 40 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 10 9 8 8 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 117 115 96 76 71 24 34 18 25 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 141 115 74 55 38 38 19 21 25 18 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -4 -6 -5 0 0 -2 1 3 7 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -56 -86 -29 44 68 67 30 45 5 0 -66 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.8 20.8 21.9 22.9 24.3 25.6 26.6 27.2 28.0 28.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.1 105.1 106.1 107.0 108.4 109.6 110.2 110.4 110.7 111.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 14 11 9 7 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 20 25 27 25 27 31 31 30 24 15 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 18 CX,CY: -12/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 323 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.7 103.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.29 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 23.5% 20.1% 14.8% 9.6% 19.6% 20.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 11.7% 4.3% 2.1% 0.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 3.5% 11.8% 8.2% 5.7% 3.5% 7.1% 7.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##