* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 85 86 87 88 83 72 61 47 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 88 85 86 87 88 83 72 61 47 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 86 82 81 81 82 80 72 58 41 29 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 13 14 16 13 11 24 50 77 43 49 31 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 1 3 3 5 14 -2 12 11 3 16 SHEAR DIR 256 245 227 226 232 210 198 195 205 230 292 255 188 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.7 24.7 20.8 17.4 15.5 14.6 14.2 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 135 129 125 109 88 78 73 69 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 117 119 115 114 101 82 73 69 65 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -50.9 -50.2 -51.9 -56.6 -56.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.1 2.5 2.4 0.5 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 62 62 53 40 33 29 38 58 68 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 45 45 47 48 50 48 49 53 50 35 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 31 20 44 46 50 100 116 143 181 47 -49 68 106 200 MB DIV 54 34 42 112 103 139 142 43 7 8 27 47 113 700-850 TADV 23 18 18 22 30 26 16 -1 -10 6 70 22 -81 LAND (KM) 2329 2246 2164 2084 2008 1890 1857 1626 1140 634 378 330 441 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.0 28.9 30.0 31.0 33.6 37.4 42.0 46.6 50.4 53.2 54.7 54.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 43.4 43.1 42.4 41.6 38.9 34.4 28.9 23.6 19.0 15.6 14.9 16.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 15 22 29 30 27 21 13 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -23. -32. -42. -49. -56. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -10. -20. -22. -24. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -5. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 9. 4. -16. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -9. -8. -7. -12. -23. -34. -48. -73. -86. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 27.1 43.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 10( 25) 10( 33) 11( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 88 85 86 87 88 83 72 61 47 22 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 91 92 93 94 89 78 67 53 28 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 93 94 89 78 67 53 28 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 87 82 71 60 46 21 DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 77 72 61 50 36 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 88 79 73 70 70 65 54 43 29 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 88 85 76 70 66 61 50 39 25 DIS DIS DIS