* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 27 24 25 27 30 31 30 30 34 37 V (KT) LAND 30 32 30 30 27 28 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 27 26 22 20 19 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 12 8 10 11 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 2 2 0 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 109 110 109 112 128 165 211 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.4 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 163 166 164 164 158 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 7 3 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 73 68 62 58 50 44 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 120 97 79 63 50 28 40 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 81 66 53 46 25 21 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -2 0 -2 -1 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -72 2 78 68 45 35 62 0 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 21.0 22.0 23.1 24.2 25.4 26.4 28.0 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.5 106.4 107.2 108.0 109.3 110.2 110.6 111.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 13 11 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 26 26 24 28 31 31 23 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 19 CX,CY: -11/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 215 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -6. -5. -3. 0. 1. 0. 0. 4. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 104.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.31 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 19.4% 17.1% 12.5% 0.0% 17.8% 19.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 7.6% 6.1% 4.3% 0.0% 6.0% 6.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##