* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 86 86 87 86 76 60 50 37 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 87 86 86 87 86 76 60 50 37 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 86 85 84 83 81 72 61 49 36 27 25 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 13 11 16 28 56 61 34 37 41 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 2 3 2 10 9 11 1 10 4 22 9 SHEAR DIR 245 229 231 247 238 179 183 195 198 274 283 215 174 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.1 26.6 25.5 23.1 18.4 15.3 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 127 123 114 99 82 73 68 64 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 119 113 111 105 93 77 69 64 60 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -50.4 -50.0 -53.4 -56.4 -52.6 -47.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.3 3.3 3.2 1.4 0.8 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 62 60 47 36 34 35 49 57 64 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 44 45 46 47 48 49 46 44 49 43 28 14 30 850 MB ENV VOR 18 38 46 48 50 97 117 118 165 108 96 172 162 200 MB DIV 53 38 94 99 114 138 110 64 96 32 36 62 76 700-850 TADV 22 19 24 32 25 30 -15 -27 -51 65 122 41 -57 LAND (KM) 2230 2154 2081 1999 1926 1849 1897 1326 704 487 460 460 461 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.1 30.0 31.3 32.5 35.7 39.9 45.5 50.3 52.8 53.3 53.7 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 42.8 42.3 41.2 40.2 36.5 31.5 25.4 20.0 17.4 16.9 17.0 17.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 13 15 19 25 33 33 23 9 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 12 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -21. -31. -40. -47. -53. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -11. -19. -19. -20. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -2. 3. -5. -26. -46. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -14. -30. -40. -53. -79.-105. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.2 43.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 10( 29) 10( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 86 86 87 86 76 60 50 37 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 88 89 88 78 62 52 39 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 87 86 76 60 50 37 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 80 70 54 44 31 DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 70 60 44 34 21 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 68 58 42 32 19 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 87 86 77 71 67 57 41 31 18 DIS DIS DIS