* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 83 83 82 77 62 43 40 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 82 83 83 82 77 62 43 40 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 82 80 79 78 72 61 49 41 34 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 10 10 24 38 52 31 18 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 6 7 11 12 2 0 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 219 250 241 210 190 190 200 205 271 300 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.1 26.2 23.9 19.4 15.7 14.1 13.0 12.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 126 118 120 104 85 76 71 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 112 107 110 97 81 72 67 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -51.9 -50.1 -52.1 -55.5 -57.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.1 1.5 2.5 2.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 59 53 41 39 46 49 57 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 46 48 48 47 45 42 38 44 35 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 50 63 91 86 85 105 106 48 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 94 92 107 119 136 85 63 58 20 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 21 26 34 39 -15 -82 -48 -10 31 45 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2119 2040 1964 1888 1829 1822 1507 853 576 453 334 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.4 31.4 32.9 34.4 38.1 43.4 49.6 54.0 56.5 57.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 42.3 41.7 40.2 38.7 34.2 27.7 21.8 18.8 15.5 11.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 15 20 23 31 36 30 20 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -21. -30. -38. -44. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -16. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -5. -18. -35. -36. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -2. -3. -8. -23. -42. -45. -58. -79. -83. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.4 42.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 8( 25) 6( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 83 83 82 77 62 43 40 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 85 85 84 79 64 45 42 29 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 80 75 60 41 38 25 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 69 54 35 32 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 46 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 85 82 83 74 68 64 49 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS