* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 34 32 32 32 34 31 28 27 29 30 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 34 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 30 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 12 11 13 14 20 16 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 3 4 4 2 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 96 99 106 134 178 210 218 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.9 30.3 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 165 169 163 160 155 147 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 65 60 55 50 41 40 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 84 73 71 53 29 35 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 65 44 35 43 26 19 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 1 0 -1 4 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 37 45 30 17 -28 -25 -22 -65 -92 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.9 25.9 27.4 28.2 29.4 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 107.5 108.3 109.0 110.2 110.9 111.6 111.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 28 29 26 26 23 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 359 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -12. -16. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. -4. -7. -8. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.0 106.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.93 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 25.4% 22.3% 17.1% 11.2% 20.4% 20.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 9.4% 7.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 11.7% 10.0% 6.5% 4.1% 6.8% 6.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##