* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 87 83 69 49 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 87 83 69 49 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 88 87 84 79 66 52 42 33 27 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 18 22 44 52 30 27 44 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 12 14 7 3 0 3 11 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 236 205 190 188 191 207 213 296 296 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.0 26.3 25.3 24.0 20.2 16.4 14.8 13.5 13.1 13.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 117 121 113 104 87 77 72 68 64 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 106 111 104 97 83 74 69 64 61 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -51.8 -50.9 -51.6 -55.6 -57.2 -56.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.0 1.8 3.1 1.2 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 52 45 38 37 42 50 52 51 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 47 47 48 47 45 41 43 33 21 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 70 83 77 92 84 106 109 70 49 22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 115 85 127 158 93 75 35 18 5 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 25 27 19 -1 -53 -48 19 35 63 74 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1966 1888 1827 1808 1822 1571 905 464 316 253 114 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.8 34.3 36.1 37.9 42.8 48.8 53.4 56.2 56.7 55.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.9 40.4 38.9 36.6 34.4 28.4 22.0 17.0 13.1 10.8 9.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 23 26 30 35 33 23 12 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -18. -29. -39. -48. -55. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -19. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -6. -20. -37. -53. -54. -54. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -7. -21. -41. -49. -67. -91.-113.-119.-122. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.3 41.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 9( 29) 3( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 89 87 83 69 49 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 82 68 48 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 80 66 46 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 62 42 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 57 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 62 42 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 89 80 74 70 50 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS